SOME STERN WARNINGS FROM THE NORTH OF THE CONTINENT TO SOME IN THE SOUTH

SOME STERN WARNINGS FROM THE NORTH OF THE CONTINENT TO SOME IN THE SOUTH

In Zimbabwe at the moment, it seems treasonous to suggest that what happened in Tunisia can happen in Zimbabwe. But the reality is that it can, and interestingly the authorities in Egypt made similar assertions around the impossibility of a Tunisia happening in Egypt, when the domino theory was put to them and it was suggested that events in their smaller neighbour could spur revolt in their own country.  There is a temptation for the Harare regime to take comfort from thinking that events in North Africa only have a contagion effect based on physical proximity, hence the events in Yemen and Jordan where the Dictators there are scurrying to implement reforms now before their situations escalate.

However, the truth is that in this globalised world where people in Zimbabwe can talk to those in China as if they were two meters away, such comfort is false. When one looks at how well Egypt seemed to be doing economically with GDP growth rates of 5%-7% over the last couple of years, and an unemployment rate of an estimated 25% and Mubarak’s manufactured 88% vote of confidence in the previous elections, one immediately thinks about our own Presidents vote count in the ill-fated and dismissed run-off of 2008, and how the above statistics pale in comparison, when Zimbabwe’s statistics are placed on the table.

What is worse is that the regime in Harare is no longer in a position where they can offer the kind of concessions that Mubarak tried to offer. Zimbabwe already has an inclusive government - so a multi-party cabinet cannot be offered as a concession. The President already has two Deputies, so cannot offer to appoint a third Vice President as giving something. The head of state’s son is too young, and as such his pretentions to the thrown cannot be in the short to medium term on the basis of his age, and in spite of his legendary skills on the basket court, so his not running in the next election cannot be offered as a concession.

Most importantly, Zimbabwe already has a program for reforms. They are called the Global Political Agreement (GPA), which the regime has had two years to implement, but has failed- so a program of reform cannot be offered as a concession.

The biggest lesson for the political leadership in Zimbabwe from what has been happening in the North though, is that they need to make hay while the sun shines. They should pull up their socks and implement an orderly transition, which is responsive and replete with reforms that are democratic. It is a sad and sorry sight to see a veteran leader who would have, no doubt, somewhere in the past done some good for his people, give the kind of Speeches that Ben Ali had to in Tunisia, and which Mubarak tried to resist giving in Egypt. There are opportunities to salvage pride and organize the much vaunted “elegant and dignified exists” that our leaders seem to need and their colleagues advocate for them when it is too late. The GPA offers this opportunity, and instead of having to resort to the constitution when they are on the brink of collapse, now is the opportunity to govern constitutionally, and to facilitate a well meaning constitution that is democratic and people centered which can be part of their lasting legacies, and something that people can point to and say, there was a lot of bad done, but at the end at little good was done too.

If one is a dictator anywhere in the world, there are some clear lessons for the ordinary people that ought to put their proclivities for repression in check and act as a Damascus encounter for them. Simple lessons from events in the north for the ordinary people in Zimbabwe include that:

1.     The people, if united cannot be defeated, and can achieve so much if they arrest their fear.

2.     People can attain their freedom and relief if they cease to solely rely on others, like political leadership and regional bodies of states, to deliver the same to them on a silver platter, but instead look for and provide leadership for themselves.

3.     Social networks that are online and were built to make friends, can be formidable tools in taking on your enemies, at least while the Internet lasts and is available.

4.     Belief and resolve in your own power and the inevitability of your emancipation is key in the march to freedom, and lastly,

5.     When everything else fails, you move your feet to the beat of your heart and take the struggle back to the streets where the people live.

The events in North Africa and some parts of the Arab world are a manifestation of what happens when people are betrayed by political processes and systems, and can no longer rely on their political leaders to look out for their interests. Repression and limitation of democratic options can cull the people in the short term. But in the long term, it only strengthens their resolve; limit their options and breeds strength in radicalism. 

31 years in power is a long time. It was long in Indonesia and it was too long in Egypt. The consequences for Suharto and Mubarak are now the subject of history and studies in democratization and revolution. An Egypt is possible in Zimbabwe, not because of what anyone might say or do to incite people, but simply because circumstances that people are constantly subjected to, point to this possibility. The burning of newspapers, victimization of perceived opponents, crack downs on civil society leaders and their operating space, poor working conditions and wages, repressive laws and partisan institutions are all part of these circumstances.  The only way to limit the possibilities is not for the regime to dig in, but to begin to pull us out of this hole.