POST JULY 31…WHAT’S NEXT?
Zimbabwe’s
July 31 Election is receding into the rearview mirror for a lot of people, for
some not fast enough, for others too slowly, but soon it will be a forgotten
event, as people grapple with the reality of its results, its impact on our
aspiration and implications for our nation.
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| Possible Transitional Outcomes - Michael Bratton and Nicolas van de Walle, adapted by dr. p. Zamchiya |
The Conceptual Perspective
The Coalition defined a
prolonged transition as a situation in which the incumbent (President Mugabe),
would manipulate the elections but unlike in a derailed transition, would also
be determined to stabilize or even advance democratic gains made during the
transition (read GNU era). That might include avoiding changes to the
constitution, making sure that relevant commissions work, enable independent
press to continue operating and commit to promoting peace.
The theory, that Crisis posited,
was that the incumbent would be faced with two routes to attain this. The first
would be to form another inclusive government, with the protagonists for
legitimacy or to enable an effective government. The decision would also have the
possibility of being a result of external exigent factors such as the political
agency and actions of a tenacious opposition, civil society or regional and
international bodies.
The second route, is where the
incumbent would be bold enough to form a one party government as before the
inclusive government but would seek political legitimacy or self-preservation
through committing to stabilize or even advance the democratic gains that were
made during the initial phase of the transition. The scale of democratization
would then also depend on external pressure from the citizenry, civil society,
political parties or regional and international bodies.
In theory, in a prolonged
transition, there would be no greater likelihood to return to closed
authoritarian practices but there would still be, in the initial stages, a
challenge in that the democratic gains made during the transition would be
co-existing with some old authoritarian practices. Depending on the struggle
for democratization, a breakthrough would be found over time, with the intervening
5 years and the early onset of the new regime being a foundational school of
democracy needing more time to graduate.
The Contextual Reality
Looking back at the above
theoretical framework, and seeing how accurate it seems to be in the aftermath of
the election, gives us no satisfaction as an institution whose vision is a
democratic Zimbabwe and as an institution that had hoped that the destination
would be reached in the shortest possible time. However, it is what it is, and
we all have to accept that there is a discrepancy between the world as we want
it to be and the world as it. We have to accept that despite the political
ideals and aspirations we may have there now exists a political reality that is
characterized by a ‘resurgent’ ZANU PF, which is standing on the shoulders of a
two-thirds majority in Parliament.
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| A Defeated Opposition? |
On the other hand, we also have
the reality of a ‘defeated’ opposition that is taking longer than anyone would
want to figure out the most strategic way to engage with this situation. It has
stated that it will i) disengage from government but apparently that doesn’t
mean withdrawal, ii) go to court and appeal the results as well as iii) take
its grievances to SADC and the AU regional blocs, which by and large have
endorsed the election as legitimate, for reasons best known to themselves.
The first action needs more than
a dictionary to understand and simply shows us that there is a lack of clarity
on the part of the MDC itself. It shows that they are still grappling with the
“to be or not to be” and ‘to what extent to be’ questions. All so confusing for
everyone, including themselves.
The other two actions that have
been mooted by the opposition in response to the political reality are
legitimate and perhaps even necessary but insufficient to achieve any real remedy.
They appear to be exercises in futility.
For starters there is the reality of institutional capture where the
judiciary in Zimbabwe is concerned which is well documented. The Judiciary is
largely beholden to and at the service of the Executive as represented by
President Mugabe, who staked its benches with known and perceived sympathizers
in the 6 months leading up to the elections.
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| In Suit and Enjoying his 15 seconds of Fame: Mawarire J, the man who history will record precipitated the fraudulent July 31 Poll, |
It is these courts that rushed
the entire nation and the region into an election bereft of democratic reforms,
which would have imbued it with more legitimacy and made it less prone to
contest. Morgan Tsvangirai fared badly in these courts as Prime Minister; there
is nothing to indicate that he has attained a “Jealous Mawarire” character,
which will allow him to fare any better as a Private Citizen alleging theft by
the “owner” of the court.
The other terrain that has been
chosen which is the regional front, does not promise too much joy for the
opposition either. This bloc, SADC, had an observer mission during the elections,
which made pronouncements on the election that do not assist their case much. Different
leaders have congratulated the winners, in moves interpreted as endorsements.
The truth will count for little to this regional body, especially if it is not
backed up by incontrovertible evidence. Add to that the innate wish to be right
and the reluctance to self-correct that is inherent in us as humans, and the
chances of success become even dimer for the opposition.
The court case only has value in
as far as it will allow history to record a statement on the electoral theft,
with no hope of recovering the stolen ‘good’. While going to SADC will assist
in keeping the region engaged, it must be borne in mind that this is a body which,
to all intents and purposes, has failed to shepherd Zimbabwe to a peaceful,
free, fair, credible and undisputed election - which is the mandate they
attained at the signing of the GPA. The election was largely peaceful but
disputed meanwhile the jury is still out on its freeness, fairness and
credibility. We would be very disappointed and doomed as a people in SADC, if
we have leaders who accept that one (1) out of five (5) is a pass mark.
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| Tahir Square and its Daily Occupants |
The biggest challenge of course
is that both actions are not supported at a symbolic and political level by any
crisis on the ground occasioned by popular discontent that is acted out.
Without that pressure the politicians at the regional level will not act,
because for them stability is the ultimate price rather than democratization. To
that end, if stability is there they won’t want to upset the cart, and as for
the courts, well they have always been built as structures that are impervious
to anything other than the law. What makes it really worse is that even if
people are intent on some kind of ground action, they need to no what they will
be competing against in terms of world political attention, and world emotional
sympathy. Think Syria with its deaths, DRC with its never-ending conflict,
Egypt with the resident protestors in Tahir Square.
The Futility of the Short game and a possible way forward for the MDCs
So there it is, the short game
by the opposition is unlikely to yield results, except to instigate a crackdown
upon themselves, their perceived allies, the progressive press and citizens by
a parochial regime. This will happen because the regime knows it stole the elections
and tried to bury the evidence, but is unsure whether any of these actions are
being taken with some credible evidence in hand.
Given the futility of the short
game, the long game for Zimbabweans in general, and pro-democracy actors in
particular, is to quickly accept the reality and then begin to think of the bigger
picture which involves keeping the ZANU PF regime in check by ensuring that its
ill-gotten two thirds majority doesn’t go to their head. This means quickly
accepting that to some extent, ‘all is fair in love and war’, it might mean accepting
the crushing defeat and taking up positions on what is left of the battleground
while trying to safeguard what was fought hard for in the past 4 years as well
as the political positions retained at election.
ZANU PF has already shown that
it is not hesitant to take up dramatic and high-risk actions that move them
ahead while everyone watches in consternation and shock. If the elected local
government officials do not take up their positions in councils as part of
disengagement, soon Harare will have a ZANU PF mayor and the city will be
apportioned to ZANU PF bigwigs, as will other towns and local authorities where
they have a presence.
If elected parliamentarians do
not go to Parliament, a speaker will be elected and soon, legislation will be
pushed through that may be retrogressive, with everyone shouting hoarse from
the sidelines. New institutions occasioned by the mew constitution will be set
up with people crying foul in spaces where the noise will not make a
difference. The economy will be cut up
into nice neat portions, which will be fed to loyal ZANU PF clients as part of
their patronage system under the guise of empowerment and indigenization.
Diamonds will continue to be piled into big army tankers or pocketed by
individuals, with those that don’t fit into the big ZANU PF chefs pockets being
thrown East to our erstwhile friends in Asia, old friends in the Arab world and
new friends in Israel. A lot of this may be hard to stop, but democratic forces
have an obligation to try.
My short analysis is that if the
opposition does not have anything that will fundamentally alter the state of
affairs immediately and lead to a ‘real’ nullification of the July 31 election,
it needs to get over itself, and think clearly about how to ensure that we do
not see retrogression in critical areas and spaces of our body politic.
We are now in a prolonged
transition as a nation, and that circumstance will not change in a day. What
happens in this variant of transitional outcomes will depend on whether we are
successful in firstly, forcing ZANU PF not to retrogress to the pre-GNU
political realities. Secondly, if that task is successful, stability would have
been achieved, and the next task becomes the need to put ‘real’ pressure to
advance the reforms that were aspired to in the interregnum covered by the GNU,
and some which are captured in the new constitution.
The Role for the rest of us, and our possible saving grace
The above is not just the role
of the MDCs. Opposition here also includes existing and intended Political
formations. The NCA and its leadership, barring the disagreeable sentiments
they have publicly made with regards to the last election, should know that it
is their task to assist in the above otherwise whatever political dreams they
have will die a still birth. If anything, they have a greater obligation to do
so, because from my viewpoint thus far, their envisioned movement has been at
variance with the pulse of the people, especially the people they seem likely
to capture as a founding support base, which bodes ill for them.
Having said the above, we have
stated in our projections that the only way that this prolonged transition can
lead ultimately to democratization, doesn’t depend solely on political actors. The
scale of democratization will also depend on external pressure applied by the
citizenry, civil society, and political parties as well as regional and
international pressure. So it is everyone’s responsibility. The sooner civil
society and the greater citizenry accept this and stop deferring to the MDCs
for action and leadership, the better the chances of success. The sooner
everyone accepts that they have a role to play in pushing for democratization,
and that it is not just the role of an established opposition reeling from a
stolen victory, the better our chances of safeguarding the country from
backsliding to the authoritarian days of old.
Those of us who felt robbed now
need to quickly overcome this grief and engage with the political world as it
is, instead of just mourning about the political world as we would have wanted
it to be. Everything is spilt milk now, and we best be advised to go fetch
another cup, instead of crying over it.
Ends/
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